An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major outbreaks is...
Mar 10, 2022 · The terms "endemic," "epidemic" and "pandemic" may be new for some people, and they could be easily confused. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention offers these definitions:
We study an S--I type epidemic model in an age-structured population, with mortality due to the disease. A threshold quantity is found that controls the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and guarantees the existence of an endemic equilibriu...
Networked epidemic models have been widely adopted to describe propagation phenomena. The endemic equilibrium of these models is of great significance in the field of viral marketing, innovation dissemination, and information diffusion. However, its...
Multivariate count time series models are an important tool for the analysis and prediction of infectious disease spread. We consider the endemic-epidemic framework, an autoregressive model class for infectious disease surveillance counts, and replac...
Mar 10, 2022 · The terms "endemic," "epidemic" and "pandemic" may be new for some people, and they could be easily confused. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention offers these definitions:
We adapt the article of Forien, Pang, Pardoux and Zotsa: Arxiv preprint Arxiv2210.04667(2022), on epidemic models with varying infectivity and waning immunity, to incorporate the memory of the last infection. To this end, we introduce a parametric ap...
The Tanganyika laughter epidemic of 1962 was an outbreak of mass hysteria—or mass psychogenic illness (MPI)—rumored to have occurred in or near the village
??⚕️Covid-19 estimation and forecast using statistical model; 新型冠状病毒肺炎统计模型预测 (Jan 2020) (⭐ 245)
This paper investigates the optimal control of an epidemic governed by a SEIR model with operational delays in vaccination and non pharmaceutical interventions. We address the mathematical challenge of imposing hard healthcare capacity constraints (e...
In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is an open challenge and critical practical problem to find a optimal way to dynamically prescribe the best policies that balance both the governmental resources and epidemic control in different countries and re...
We study the influence of heterogeneous mobility patterns in a population on the SIS epidemic model. In particular, we consider a patchy environment in which each patch comprises individuals belonging the different classes, e.g., individuals in diffe...
天池 疫情相似句对判定大赛 线上第一名方案 (⭐ 436)
The crack epidemic was a surge of crack cocaine use in major cities across the United States throughout the entirety of the 1980s and the early 1990s.
This is a list of the largest known epidemics and pandemics caused by an infectious disease in humans. Widespread non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular
天池大赛疫情文本挑战赛线上第三名方案分享 (⭐ 228)
Epidemic typhus, also known as louse-borne typhus, is a form of typhus so named because the disease often causes epidemics following wars and natural disasters
Mar 10, 2022 · An epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents and affects many people. Over the past two years, COVID-19 has been classified as a pandemic due to its widespread …
We study an individual-based stochastic epidemic model in which infected individuals become susceptible again following each infection (generalized SIS model). Specifically, after each infection, the infectivity is a random function of the time elaps...
A comparative stochastic and deterministic study of a family of SEIRS epidemic dynamic models for malaria is presented. The family type is determined by the qualitative behavior of the nonlinear incidence rates of the disease. Furthermore, the malari...
In this paper, we prove functional central limit theorems (FCLTs) for a stochastic epidemic model with varying infectivity and general infectious periods recently introduced in Forien, Pang and Pardoux (2020).The infectivity process (total force of i...
We consider an epidemic model with direct transmission given by a system of nonlinear partial differential equations and study the existence of traveling wave solutions. When the basic reproductive number of the considered model is less than one, we...
We consider a time-delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with education dissemination and study the asymptotic dynamics of solutions as well as the asymptotic behavior of the endemic equilibrium with respect to the amount of information disseminated about...
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Epidemic spreading has been studied for a long time and most of them are focused on the growing aspect of a single epidemic outbreak. Recently, we extended the study to the case of recurrent epidemics (Sci. Rep. {\bf 5}, 16010 (2015)) but limited onl...
The spread of infectious diseases near the epidemic threshold is investigated. Scaling laws for the size and the duration of outbreaks originating from a single infected individual in a large susceptible population are obtained. The maximal size of...
Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra- and inter-...
Effective epidemic modeling and surveillance require computationally efficient methods that can continuously update estimates as new data becomes available. This paper explores the application of an online variant of Sequential Monte Carlo Squared (O...
Background: Travel is a potent force in the emergence of disease. We discussed how the traveler case reports could aid in a timely detection of a disease outbreak. Methods: Using the traveler data, we estimated a few indicators of the epidemic that a...
The Opioid Epidemic: From Evidence to Impact (PDF). Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Leahy LG (2017). "The Opioid
Metapopulation models have been a popular tool for the study of epidemic spread over a network of highly populated nodes (cities, provinces, countries) and have been extensively used in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the present wor...
${\bf Background:}$ The early growth dynamics of the West African Ebola virus epidemic has been qualitatively different for Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. However, it is important to understand these disparate dynamics as trends of a single epidem...
Reproduction numbers are widely used for the estimation and prediction of epidemic spreading processes over networks. However, conventional reproduction numbers of an overall network do not indicate where an epidemic is spreading. Therefore, we propo...
In this paper we consider epidemic models of directly transmissible SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) and SEIR (with an additional latent class) infections in fully-susceptible populations with a social structure, consisting either of...
An epidemic curve, also known as an epi curve or epidemiological curve, is a statistical chart used in epidemiology to visualise the onset of a disease
Social contact studies, investigating social contact patterns in a population sample, have been an important contribution for epidemic models to better fit real life epidemics. A contact matrix $M$, having the \emph{mean} number of contacts between i...
Public health decisions must be made about when and how to implement interventions to control an infectious disease epidemic. These decisions should be informed by data on the epidemic as well as current understanding about the transmission dynamics....
We propose a simple model with two infective classes in order to model the cholera epidemic in Haiti. We include the impact of environmental events (rainfall, temperature and tidal range) on the epidemic in the Artibonite and Ouest regions by introdu...
Motivated by the study of controlling (curing) epidemics, we consider the spread of an SI process on a known graph, where we have a limited budget to use to transition infected nodes back to the susceptible state (i.e., to cure nodes). Recent work ha...
In this article, we consider an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with four classes of individuals. We have discussed about basic properties of the system and found the basic reproduction number $R_0$ of the system. The stability analysis of the model shows th...